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  Future Directions For U.S. Foreign Policy: Balancing Status Quo and Reform

  Richard L. Kugler and Hans Binnendijk

  This paper offers a framework for how to analyze and blend together the viability of returning to a set of policies and with that of a greater emphasis on the status quo. It also offers a direction of where these analyses can lead in the future. It is a global perspective but provides insights along the way on the Middle East.

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  U.S. Support for UN Peacekeeping: Areas for Additional DOD Assistance

  Nancy Soderberg

  This report addresses primarily those areas in which limited DoD involvement will provide multiplier benefits to U.S. Security. While beyond the scope of this study, a government-wide, comprehensive review of possible assistance should be conducted.

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  Senturion: A Predictive Political Simulation Model

  Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, and Jacek Kugler

  This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University. The paper describes the methodology underlying the software, and then provides an overview of three case studies that used the software.

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  Solutions for Northern Kosovo: Lessons Learned in Mostar, Eastern Slavonia, and Brcko

  Hans Binnendijk, Charles L. Barry, GIna Cordero, Laura Peterson Nussbaum, and Melissa Sinclair

  This paper examines three similar cases to the issues in Kososvo that were managed by the international community. By looking at the results of these three cases a decade or more after they began, this paper attempts to shed light on the options for Mitrovica, Kosovo. In order to do this, members of the CTNSP staff traveled to these areas to gather firsthand information relating to this problem.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Apache Helicopter: Project Hindsight Revisited

  Richard Chait, John W. Lyons, and Duncan Long

  This study is the second in a series that examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into the U.S. Army weapons systems we see in the field today. The purpose of this report is to examine the development of select Army systems, and in particular those signal technology events that propelled these systems to success, and to shed light on the factors that lead defense science and technology research to fruition.

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  Army Science and Technology Analysis for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

  Richard Chait, Albert Sciarretta, and Dennis Shorts

  This study assesses the technology capability gaps in the U.S. Army’s ability to conduct S&R operations. The purpose of this study is to identify the technological shortfalls, identify capability gaps and needs, and highlight technology opportunities for consideration by Army S&T leadership.

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  Overcoming the S&T Assessment Uncertainty Principle: An Approach to Enterprise-Wide Assessment of the DOD S&T Program

  Timothy Coffey, Elihu Zimet, Fred E. Saalfeld, and Timothy Lo

  This study examines why the sum of all the reviews of the relevance, viability, and productivity of the S&T program of the DoD does not constitute an assessment of the entire DoD S&T enterprise and examines the prospects for rectifying this situation.

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  Issues in Air Force Science and Technology Funding

  Donald C. Daniel

  This paper looks at several issues surrounding future Air Force S&T and offers some suggestions for the future. It also looks at the framework of Air Force science and technology and a long-term history of Air Force S&T funding.

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  Implementing DOD’s International Science and Technology Strategy

  Donald C. Daniel and Cheryl Loeb

  As can be seen from the recently released “International Science and Technology Strategy for the United States Department of Defense,” the network for worldwide sharing of defense S&T information is vast, and the new strategy provides an excellent framework to maximize this potential. This paper provides some specific thoughts on implementation and how certain steps might benefit all involved.

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  The New Reality of International Telecommunications Strategy

  Robert C. Fonow

  This paper considers the relative decline of American Telecommunications leadership from geopolitical and technical perspectives. This decline is important to recognize and understand because it is masked by the achievements of the American economy and U.S. military successes since the end of the Cold War.

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  Extending the User’s Reach: Responsive Networking for Integrated Military Operations

  David C. Gompert, Charles L. Barry, and Alf A. Andreassen

  The aim of this study is to identify a path for the U.S. DoD to improve the responsiveness of military information networks for joint warfighters. This is not a technical treatise about bits and bandwidth; it proposes no architecture or standards. Rather, it looks at how military-operational information requirements relate to national strategy and at how those requirements are set and met.

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  Bringing Defense into the Information Economy

  David C. Gompert and Paul Bracken

  This is an exploratory essay aimed at injecting new perspective and questions into the study of the fundamentals of defense economics. It is meant to start a “productive conversation” about the affordability of defense and the alignment of technology, economics, and grand strategy.

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  A New Conceptual Framework for Net-Centric, Enterprise-Wide, System-of-Systems Engineering

  Jeremy M. Kaplan

  This paper presents a theoretical framework for thinking about system-of-systems (SOS) on a large scale, a net-centric approach to SOS engineering, and a way ahead for DoD. The theoretical framework defines the general characteristics of SOSs, and describes how these lead to underlying problems which address problems from integrated social, organizational, and technical perspectives.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of Selected Army Weapons Systems: A Summary of ‘Project Hindsight Revisited’

  John W. Lyons, Richard Chait, and Duncan Long

  This report collects and summarizes the findings from prior studies regarding the effectiveness of the Abrams tank, Apache helicopter, and two-man portable missile system. This report compares these findings to the findings from the original Project Hindsight and then offers recommendations based on the four systems for managing today’s Army science and technology work.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Stinger and Javelin Missile Systems: Project Hindsight Revisited

  John W. Lyons, Duncan Long, and Richard Chait

  This paper seeks to identify the Critical Technological Events (CTEs) in the development of the Stinger and Javelin missiles. It is the third paper in a series that, driven by importance of understanding past military technological successes to today’s defense science and technology (S&T) investment and management, examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into current U.S. Army weapon systems.

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  Weathering the Storm: Leading Your Organization Through a Pandemic

  Stephen Prior, Robert E. Armstrong, Ford Rowan, and Mary Beth Hill-Harmon

  This document is a guide to help prepare your organization for survival during a pandemic. All organizations have their own culture and character, so no one easy-to-follow guide will provide all the answers for your specific group. Rather, this is designed to provide you with resource materials from which you may pick and choose to tailor a plan that is best suited to your circumstances.

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  Cooperative Crisis Management and Avian Influenza: A Risk Assessment Guide for International Contagious Disease Prevention and Risk Mitigation

  Donald F. Thompson and Renata P. Louie

  This paper proposes a risk assessment and mitigation strategy designed to give both national authorities and international organizations the diagnostic took needed to evaluate preparedness, identify country-level weaknesses, and prioritize scarce resources to combat avian influenza.

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  An ICT Primer: Information and Communication Technologies for Civil-Military Coordination in Disaster Relief and Stabilization and Reconstruction

  Larry Wentz

  This primer presents current knowledge and best practices in creating a collaborative, civil-military, information environment to support data collection, communications, collaboration, and information-sharing needs in disaster situations and complex emergencies.

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  Harnessing the Interagency for Complex Operations

  Neyla Arnas, Charles L. Barry, and Robert B. Oakley

  This paper attempts to catalogue and describe the known models for interagency cooperation for stabilization and reconstruction (S&R) operations. The models in existence and under discussion can be grouped in terms of their focus on different aspects of the interagency process, as well as on different aspects of S&R.

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  The NATO Response Force: Facilitating Coalition Warfare Through Technology Transfer and Information Sharing

  Jeffrey P. Bialos and Stuart L. Koehl

  This study is an examination of the issues associated with transferring U.S. technology and information needed for standing up such an advanced force for early entry into high-intensity conflicts. It also makes a number of additional observations about the nature of 21st century coalition warfighting, the centrality of network-centric warfare to coalition operations, and the importance and complexity of improving force interoperability in an increasingly network-centric environment.

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  Transforming the Reserve Component: Four Essays

  Hans Binnendijk; Michael J, Baranick; Raymond E. Bell; Gina Cordero; Stephen M. Duncan; Christopher Holshek; and Larry Wentz

  This volume contains four essays on various aspects of the Reserve Component published at a time when Reserves are serving overseas at historically high rates and when new missions like homeland security demand their attention. In these essays, the authors explore ways in which the Reserve Component might be transformed to face these challenges.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Abrams Tank: Project Hindsight Revisited

  Richard Chait, John W. Lyons, and Duncan Long

  This paper consists of a series of studies focusing on Army weapons systems, beginning with the mainstay of the Army’s armor force, the Abrams tank. Analysis of other Army systems, such as the Apache helicopter and the Javelin and Stinger missiles will follow. The results of all studies are complied in a wrap-up report that will focus on the implications of the findings for today’s S&T environment.

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  The Science and Technology Innovation Conundrum

  Timothy Coffey, Jill P. Dahlburg, and Elihu Zimet

  This study is motivated by the observation that the state of health of the United States S&T enterprise seems to be simultaneously characterized by opposite assessments. The purpose of this study is to shed light on how this conundrum has come about, and from this perspective to evaluate potential impacts of the underlying drivers of the conundrum on the technological positioning and ultimate national security of the U.S.

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  Container Security: A Proposal for a Comprehensive Code of Conduct

  Ola Dahlman, Jenifer Mackby, Bernard Sitt, Andre Poucet, Arend Meerburg, Bernard Massinon, Edward Ifft, Masahiko Asada, and Ralph Alewine

  This paper recommends the development and adoption of a comprehensive Code of Conduct that would be globally recognized and enforced for the improved security in the shipping trade, including some procedures on containers, which has become an important component of global commerce.

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  Pre-Conflict Management Tools: Winning the Peace

  Aaron B. Frank

  This paper addresses the Pre-Conflict Management Tools (PCMT) Program which was developed to transform how intelligence, policy, and operational decisionmakers interact when confronting highly complex strategic problems. The first half of this paper provides readers a context for why the PCMT program is important for incorportating social science models into the RCC and interagency planning processes. The second half provides an overview of the structure, methods, and technologies of PCMT.