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  An Assessment of the Science and Technology Predictions in the Army’s STAR21 Report

  John W. Lyons, Richard Chait, and Jordan Wilcox

  This paper reviews the technology forecast assessments of the Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century (STAR21) study conducted for the Army by the National Research Council in the early 1990s.

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  Good Bugs, Bad Bugs: A Modern Approach for Detecting Offensive Biological Weapons Research

  Michael Moodie, Cheryl Loeb, Robert E. Armstrong, and Helen Purkitt

  This report outlines a new framework to monitor countries in terms of their potential to engage in covert biological weapons research. This is an effort to develop an indirect approach to measuring a nation’s capability to conduct offensive weapons research in both civilian and government or military settings.

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  Programming Development Funds to Support a Counterinsurgency: Nangarhar, Afghanistan

  Michelle Parker

  This paper describes one method of programming development funds at a sub-national level to positively affect a counterinsurgency, in this case, in Eastern Afghanistan. It explores how one interagency group, the Jalalabad Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), developed and implemented a strategy for increasing stability in its area of operations by maximizing the resources each agency brought to the table and creating “unity of effort.”

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  A Methodology for Assessing the Military Benefits of Science and Technology Investments

  Albert Sciarretta, Richard Chait, Joseph N. Mait, and Jordan Willcox

  This paper discusses approaches developed at CTNSP, at the request of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology, for measuring the benefits of today’s science and technology (S&T) investments on the future military.

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  Homegrown Terrorism: The Threat Within

  Kimberley L. Thachuk, Marion E. “Spike” Bowman, and Courtney Richardson

  This paper attempts to illustrate how difficult, if not impossible, it is to find root causes of domestic terrorism that are of general applicability. It is likely to be more important to focus on the unique cultural stamp of the individual nation to assess the reason for violence-prone disquietude among its citizens and residents.

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  The Future Nuclear Landscape

  Paul I. Bernstein, John P. Caves Jr., and John F. Reichart

  In important ways, the world is at a nuclear crossroads. The complex and dynamic nuclear landscape presents us with challenges along at least four axes: regional nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism, great power nuclear relations, and the security implications of increased interest in nuclear energy. These problems are interrelated in ways that the national security community does not fully understand. Strategy and policy frameworks do not address them in sufficiently integrated fashion. New conceptual thinking is required to develop a more unified understanding of and approach to managing the risks and opportunities posed by these 21st-century nuclear challenges.
  
  Today, more than at any other time in the nuclear era, nuclear capacity and potential (knowledge, technology, and materials) are accessible to a growing number of actors with more ambitious goals. The result is a high degree of nuclear latency that challenges traditional thinking about nuclear threats. Whereas 30 or 40 years ago, only a handful of countries were assumed to know how to acquire nuclear weapons, as many as 35 or 40 nations currently are believed to be in the know, and many more could become so based on their participation in civilian nuclear energy programs.

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  Breakthrough Air Force Capabilities Spawned by Basic Research

  William Berry and Cheryl Loeb

  This paper will focus on scientific discoveries that have already lead to new capabilities for the Air Force, as well as those discoveries that will lead to the new capabilities envisioned in the 2004 Flight plan and 2006 Posture Statement and those yet to be envisioned.

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  A Further Look at Technologies and Capabilities for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

  Richard Chait, Albert Sciarretta, John W. Lyons, Charles L. Barry, Dennis Shorts, and Duncan Long

  This present study resumes where the first study left off, expanding on identifying capability needs and possible technology solutions to the S&R problems facing the force today and in the future.

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  Deploying Nuclear Detection Systems: A Proposed Strategy for Combating Nuclear Terrorism

  James Goodby, Timothy Coffey, and Cheryl Loeb

  This report provides an overview of the threat from nuclear terrorism; discusses the role of intelligence and risk assessments in countering this threat; provides a brief overview of nuclear detection technologies and issues; briefly summarizes key U.S. Government programs involved in nuclear detection; summarizes domestic legislation; and discusses the need for a global approach to nuclear nonproliferation.

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  Implications of an Independent Kosovo for Russia’s Near Abroad

  Zoe Hunter, Samuel T. Schwabe, Melissa Sinclair, Michael H. Hoffman, Michael Baranick, and Daniel L. Burghart

  This paper evaluates the argument that Kosovo’s situation represents a precedent for separatists elsewhere by comparing it to the four regions in the Former Soviet Union most often cited in relation to it and is intended to highlight the similarities and differences between these cases, to facilitate negotiations on the resolution of the final status of Kosovo.

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  Future Directions For U.S. Foreign Policy: Balancing Status Quo and Reform

  Richard L. Kugler and Hans Binnendijk

  This paper offers a framework for how to analyze and blend together the viability of returning to a set of policies and with that of a greater emphasis on the status quo. It also offers a direction of where these analyses can lead in the future. It is a global perspective but provides insights along the way on the Middle East.

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  U.S. Support for UN Peacekeeping: Areas for Additional DOD Assistance

  Nancy Soderberg

  This report addresses primarily those areas in which limited DoD involvement will provide multiplier benefits to U.S. Security. While beyond the scope of this study, a government-wide, comprehensive review of possible assistance should be conducted.

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  Senturion: A Predictive Political Simulation Model

  Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, and Jacek Kugler

  This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University. The paper describes the methodology underlying the software, and then provides an overview of three case studies that used the software.

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  Solutions for Northern Kosovo: Lessons Learned in Mostar, Eastern Slavonia, and Brcko

  Hans Binnendijk, Charles L. Barry, GIna Cordero, Laura Peterson Nussbaum, and Melissa Sinclair

  This paper examines three similar cases to the issues in Kososvo that were managed by the international community. By looking at the results of these three cases a decade or more after they began, this paper attempts to shed light on the options for Mitrovica, Kosovo. In order to do this, members of the CTNSP staff traveled to these areas to gather firsthand information relating to this problem.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Apache Helicopter: Project Hindsight Revisited

  Richard Chait, John W. Lyons, and Duncan Long

  This study is the second in a series that examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into the U.S. Army weapons systems we see in the field today. The purpose of this report is to examine the development of select Army systems, and in particular those signal technology events that propelled these systems to success, and to shed light on the factors that lead defense science and technology research to fruition.

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  Army Science and Technology Analysis for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

  Richard Chait, Albert Sciarretta, and Dennis Shorts

  This study assesses the technology capability gaps in the U.S. Army’s ability to conduct S&R operations. The purpose of this study is to identify the technological shortfalls, identify capability gaps and needs, and highlight technology opportunities for consideration by Army S&T leadership.

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  Overcoming the S&T Assessment Uncertainty Principle: An Approach to Enterprise-Wide Assessment of the DOD S&T Program

  Timothy Coffey, Elihu Zimet, Fred E. Saalfeld, and Timothy Lo

  This study examines why the sum of all the reviews of the relevance, viability, and productivity of the S&T program of the DoD does not constitute an assessment of the entire DoD S&T enterprise and examines the prospects for rectifying this situation.

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  Issues in Air Force Science and Technology Funding

  Donald C. Daniel

  This paper looks at several issues surrounding future Air Force S&T and offers some suggestions for the future. It also looks at the framework of Air Force science and technology and a long-term history of Air Force S&T funding.

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  Implementing DOD’s International Science and Technology Strategy

  Donald C. Daniel and Cheryl Loeb

  As can be seen from the recently released “International Science and Technology Strategy for the United States Department of Defense,” the network for worldwide sharing of defense S&T information is vast, and the new strategy provides an excellent framework to maximize this potential. This paper provides some specific thoughts on implementation and how certain steps might benefit all involved.

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  The New Reality of International Telecommunications Strategy

  Robert C. Fonow

  This paper considers the relative decline of American Telecommunications leadership from geopolitical and technical perspectives. This decline is important to recognize and understand because it is masked by the achievements of the American economy and U.S. military successes since the end of the Cold War.

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  Extending the User’s Reach: Responsive Networking for Integrated Military Operations

  David C. Gompert, Charles L. Barry, and Alf A. Andreassen

  The aim of this study is to identify a path for the U.S. DoD to improve the responsiveness of military information networks for joint warfighters. This is not a technical treatise about bits and bandwidth; it proposes no architecture or standards. Rather, it looks at how military-operational information requirements relate to national strategy and at how those requirements are set and met.

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  Bringing Defense into the Information Economy

  David C. Gompert and Paul Bracken

  This is an exploratory essay aimed at injecting new perspective and questions into the study of the fundamentals of defense economics. It is meant to start a “productive conversation” about the affordability of defense and the alignment of technology, economics, and grand strategy.

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  A New Conceptual Framework for Net-Centric, Enterprise-Wide, System-of-Systems Engineering

  Jeremy M. Kaplan

  This paper presents a theoretical framework for thinking about system-of-systems (SOS) on a large scale, a net-centric approach to SOS engineering, and a way ahead for DoD. The theoretical framework defines the general characteristics of SOSs, and describes how these lead to underlying problems which address problems from integrated social, organizational, and technical perspectives.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of Selected Army Weapons Systems: A Summary of ‘Project Hindsight Revisited’

  John W. Lyons, Richard Chait, and Duncan Long

  This report collects and summarizes the findings from prior studies regarding the effectiveness of the Abrams tank, Apache helicopter, and two-man portable missile system. This report compares these findings to the findings from the original Project Hindsight and then offers recommendations based on the four systems for managing today’s Army science and technology work.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Stinger and Javelin Missile Systems: Project Hindsight Revisited

  John W. Lyons, Duncan Long, and Richard Chait

  This paper seeks to identify the Critical Technological Events (CTEs) in the development of the Stinger and Javelin missiles. It is the third paper in a series that, driven by importance of understanding past military technological successes to today’s defense science and technology (S&T) investment and management, examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into current U.S. Army weapon systems.