Defense and Technology Papers

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  United Nations Peacekeeping Operations: Environmental Sustainability

  Philip Stockdale, Rebekah Kirkwood, Julie Sapp, and Jonathan Daniel

  United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (UNPKO) are deployed to create, maintain, and secure peace in countries and regions struggling with violence and war. The environmental sustainability of UNPKO mission sites is not essential to the purpose of each deployment, but good sustainability practices can benefit the mission, host nation, troop-contributing countries, and the global environment. As a major contributor to UNPKO efforts, the United States has a direct interest in improving the sustainability and cost-effectiveness of each mission.

  This paper identifies gaps in sustainability practices at local and organizational levels and recommends an increased focus on sustainability practices that can benefit the mission, host nation, troopcontributing countries, and the environment.

  The United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL) is a long-term mission, likely to be in place for at least another five years. Investments in active technologies such as solar energy and electric vehicles are already paying dividends. Expansion of these programs, as well as standardized environmental awareness training and improvements to UNIFIL’s water management practices would enhance the sustainability of the mission.

  The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is a relatively recent mission, staffed with a high proportion of illiterate peacekeepers, in a politically unstable country with a harsh natural environment. Although required by Security Council resolution to manage its environmental impact, MINUSMA lacks the financial resources, manpower and timeline to invest in complex technologies with up-front cost. To comply with its environmental mandate, the mission should implement short-term, passive measures to improve water management and solar/thermal protection, as well as standardized environmental awareness training. If the situation in Mali stabilizes and MINUSMA is extended to a longer mandate, then the mission should follow the lead of UNIFIL and implement active technologies that are environmentally friendly and will save money over the life of the equipment.

  All of these recommendations can be applied, to some extent, to all UNPKO deployments. UN headquarters should take the lead in standardizing environmental training, technology and practices for all UNPKO missions. Cost-benefit calculations will always be important, but the overall benefit of good sustainability practices will extend to people and the environment from the local to the global level.

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  Shifting Human Environment: How Trends in Human Geography Will Shape Future Military Operations

  Paul T. Bartone and Mitchell Armbruster

  In January 2014 the Center for Technology and National Security Policy was asked to examine some major trends within the domain of human geography, developments that will have important influence on the type of environments future military forces will be operating in. Experts were identified to address the following key topics:

  • Population, migration and the development of megacities
  • Technology change and education
  • Ideological and cultural factors in conflict
  • Irregular and hybrid threats
  • Growth of transnational crime organizations and activities

  One goal of this effort was to provide useful information to DoD policy makers engaged in future force planning and “futures thinking.” The papers contained in this volume all deal with major developments and trends in the human arena that are likely to change the way military forces must operate in the future. Each paper contains a section addressing anticipated implications for future military operations. And by presenting these papers as a package, the reader is encouraged to move beyond a simple recognition of particular trends, and consider how these factors may interact to shape a more complex and surprising future operating environment.1

  As economic growth has spread to more and more of the developing world, an unprecedented level of migration to large urban centers has occurred in response. The first paper by Bartone and Sciarretta explores the rise of these “megacities,” and what they mean for the future of U.S. defense policy. According to the United Nations, by 2025 there will be 37 megacities worldwide, up from 27 today. Up until now, the U.S. military has attempted to avoid operating in hostile urban environments whenever possible. Bartone and Sciarretta show that the military needs to develop significant urban warfare capabilities in order to effectively carry out future missions.

  Albert Sciarretta’s paper on ideology and decision making examines how bias shapes and informs the decisions that government and non-government groups make. Sciarretta reviews the various types of biases and ideologies that leaders have, including religious, pragmatic, and cultural beliefs systems. Understanding what these ideologies are, how they influence thought processes, and who possesses them is critical in order to develop strategies to face emerging threats.

  One way that future adversaries are likely to employ force is through a mix of conventional warfare, irregular tactics, weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, cyberattacks, and criminal behavior called hybrid warfare. James Keagle’s paper on hybrid threats explores the nature of hybrid threats and ways in which the U.S. can counter them. Understanding the hybrid threat is critical for, as Keagle explains, hybrid threats are often located in the global commons that the U.S. has sought to control. This paper is especially timely, as Russia has employed elements of hybrid warfare in its assault on Ukraine. As more and more actors turn to the tactics associated with hybrid warfare, the U.S. military must develop capabilities and strategies to counter them.

  Celina Realuyo’s paper addresses the rising threat the U.S. will face from transnational criminal enterprises. New opportunities, such as cyberspace, now allow transitional criminal elements to spread their operations further and faster than before. While the globalized economy has created previously unimaginable wealth and opportunities, it has also come with a dark side. Transnational criminal groups and international terrorists have used the same infrastructure to enrich themselves and promote their interests around the world. As transnational criminal networks become wealthy, they will seek to infiltrate and corrupt government institutions, creating in effect “criminal states” that protect and promote the interests of the gangs that control them. Transnational criminal networks have also found common cause with terrorist groups, with both operating in the same “governance gaps” that permit their behavior. A renewed whole of government approach to transnational criminal gangs will be necessary in order to combat this emerging threat.

  Robinson, Armbruster, and Snapp’s contribution on the future of education details how changes in technology and approaches are reshaping education, not only in the U.S. but around the world. New approaches to education, such as flipped classrooms, competency based education, massive open online courses (MOOCs), and mobile learning are challenging educational institutions to rapidly adapt. In addition, advanced technology makes education more affordable and accessible to more people, and further advances are expected to radically re-order the educational landscape. Virtual classrooms, augmented reality, 3D printing, and gamification are all challenging the traditional model of education. U.S. military leaders need to understand how these changes will both impact our society and how they will affect the rest of the world.

  Taken together, these papers describe an increasingly networked, technologically sophisticated and complex world that the U.S. military will have to operate in. By being aware of these trends, national security leaders and decision makers will be better equipped for the awesome task of anticipating future force challenges and requirements.

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  Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions

  James Kadtke and Linton Wells II

  This paper examines policy, legal, ethical, and strategy implications for national security of the accelerating science, technology, and engineering (ST&E) revolutions underway in five broad areas: biology, robotics, information, nanotechnology, and energy (BRINE), with a particular emphasis on how they are interacting. The paper considers the timeframe between now and 2030 but emphasizes policy and related choices that need to be made in the next few years to shape the future competitive space favorably, and focuses on those decisions that are within U.S. Department of Defense’s (DOD) purview. The pace and complexity of technological change mean that linear predictions of current needs cannot be the basis for effective guidance or management for the future. These are issues for policymakers and commanders, not just technical specialists.

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  A Strategic Vision and a New Management Approach for the Department of the Navy’s Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT&E) Portfolio

  Joseph P. Lawrence

  This paper considers the Department of the Navy Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E) program holistically. The underlying premise, that will be expanded on here, is that the Department is not doing a good enough job of strategically managing its RDT&E portfolio and that, at least partly as a result, the Department is spending too much and taking too long in getting new technology-driven capabilities into the hands of our warfighters. The goal of this paper is to identify a workable RDT&E process that better enables the Department of the Navy to identify, develop, and maintain the capabilities of our warfighters as notably the most advanced in the world.

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  Organizational Analysis of the TIDES Project and the STAR-TIDES Network using the 7-S Framework

  Paul T. Bartone, Mark Vaitkus, Kathleen Jocoy, Jocelyn V. Bartone, Linton Wells II, and Linda M. Wells

  This paper gives an in-depth organizational analysis of STAR-TIDES, a special project of CTNSP. STAR-TIDES is an open-network, global organization, a form that is increasingly common in the digital age. This report identifies the core “7-S” factors in STAR-TIDES (Strategy, Structure, Systems, Staffing, Skills, Style, and Shared values), with recommendations for improved performance. Results provide a template for how to conduct a 7-S organizational analysis.

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  Chance favors only the prepared mind:” The Proper Role for U.S. Department of Defense Science and Engineering Workforce

  Timothy Coffey

  This publication provides critical recommendations for managing the DoD’s 130,000 person Science and Technology workforce through a period of growing fiscal and geopolitical ambiguity. The report outlines a strategy that: prioritizes lessons learned through hands-on experience; cultivates practices that identify and support the most promising trends in technology and research; promotes advocacy for worthy programs, and; develops a process for ensuring competent “third parties” determine a fair price for acquisition and development. It concludes by urging the DoD return to a prudently managed, conservative S&T strategy that emphasizes workforce recruitment and training, adequate funding for research and development, and increased engagement with colleges and universities.

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  External Collaboration in Army Science and Technology: The Army’s Research Alliances

  John W. Lyons and James A. Ratches

  In this study, the authors examine the decision for Army Research Laboratories to engage in external, formal collaborations such as collaborative alliances. They go on to assess ARL Collaborative Technology Alliances (CTAs), Collaborative Research Alliances (CRAs), and Information Technology Alliance (ITAs). The report concludes by examining the effectiveness of the examples given above, and a recommendation for formulating a set of assessment questions for Army managers considering collaboration in the future.

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  Some Recent Sensor – Related Army Critical Technology Events

  James A. Ratches, Richard Chait, and John W. Lyons

  Some Recent Sensor-Related Army Critical Technology Events, James A. Ratches, Richard Chait, and John W. Lyons examined current Critical Technology Events (CTEs) that are new or ongoing in US Army Science and Technology (S&T) community. CTEs are ideas, concepts, models and analyses, including key technical and managerial decisions, which have had a major impact on the development of a specific weapons system. The five on-going projects within the Army S&T portfolio selected for inclusion in the report are the Global Positioning System (GPS)-guided munitions, Excalibur; the persistent surveillance platform, Global Hawk; Unattended Transient Acoustic/Artillery MASINT System (UTAMS); the thermal imaging night sight technology; and 5V Li-ion batteries for battlefield power sources. The authors identified 42 CTEs in the development of the Army sensors; 24 of the 42 reported were uniquely contributed by the in-house Army laboratories; 57 percent of all the CTEs originated in the Army S&T laboratories. Further, the authors draw the following conclusions: that Army laboratories make significant technical and enabling contributions to Army platforms and capabilities; Army S&T laboratories are uniquely suited to represent, defend, and guide the satisfaction of Army requirements; Army laboratories have the people, infrastructure, and determination to satisfy evolving and established needs; and the Army S&T community is the singular force in collaboration with industry and academia that ensures Army needs are optimally met in an effective, efficient, and affordable manner. The report attempts to show that the S&T resources and processes in place continue to generate CTEs in the sensor and power area for the next generation of Army systems. It concludes that it is critical to the Army’s mission to foster and nurture the Army’s in-house S&T tech base.

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  Critical Technology Events (CTEs) that Support the Rationale for Army Laboratories Based on Science and Technology Functions Performed

  James A. Ratches and John W. Lyons

  This report, part of the “Project Hindsight Revisited” series of DTP publications, provides a retrospective look at 58 Critical Technology Events (CTEs) in DoD R&D investment, logically divided across 10 separate categories. The authors demonstrate the continuing relevance of Army laboratories in the development of critical weapons systems. Using specific examples, the study articulates the importance of maintaining quality staff and managers, ensuring the relevance of S&T program investments, and integrating servicemen and women with the larger scientific community to forecast technology trends.