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  Directed Energy Weapons – Are We There Yet?

  Elihu Zimet and Christopher Mann

  The purpose of this paper is to examine the barriers to deployment of directed energy weapons and suggest a strategy for an initial deployment that addresses these issues. This strategy will focus on current high-priority threats against which DEW would provide the best alternative for the military.

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  Computer Science Research Funding: How much is too little?

  Elihu Zimet, Stuart Starr, Clifford Lau, and Anup Ghosh

  This papers summarizes and analyzes the findings of a study of the historical and planned level of Department of Defense (DOD) funding in computer science (CS) research from the 2001–2011 DOD records, and formulates key findings and recommendations.

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  Reform of the National Security Science and Technology Enterprise

  William Berry, Timothy Coffey, Don J. DeYoung, James Kadtke, and Cheryl Loeb

  This paper addresses three major topics requiring new thinking in the National Security Science and Technology Enterprise. The first topic is how overarching priorities can be better determined and implemented to direct the vast national security enterprise toward conducting S&T that will address both traditional and new national security challenges. The second deals with the integration of the Congressional committees that oversee and fund S&T. And the third focuses on the competence, role, and impact of the Government’s national security S&E workforce.

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  China’s Science and Technology Emergence: A Proposal for U.S. DOD-China Collaboration in Fundamental Research

  William Berry and Cheryl Loeb

  This report proposes the establishment of a constructive, phased strategy for engaging in collaborative fundamental research with Chinese academic institutions. Recent evaluations of top S&T universities and their specific capabilities suggest appropriate scientific areas where beneficial collaborations between DoD and China should be fostered.

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  Winning the Invisible War: An Agricultural Pilot Plan for Afghanistan

  Edward Borcherdt, Austin Carson, Frank Kennefick, James Moseley, William Taylor, Harlan Ullman, and Larry Wentz

  The purpose of this paper is to propose efforts to integrate a comprehensive campaign plan that brings together security and reconstruction efforts and the plethora of governmental and nongovernmental organizations working in Afghanistan.

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  Building the S and E Workforce for 2040: Challenges Facing the Department of Defense

  Timothy Coffey

  This paper examines some of the trends that have led to the government’s inability to maintain adequate technical competence and/or is not making proper use of the competence that it has maintained. It focuses on the government component of the model and it is expected that many of the same considerations will apply to the quasi-government component, also.

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  Toward a New Transatlantic Compact

  Richard L. Kugler and Hans Binnendijk

  This paper calls for a new NATO strategic concept and a new transatlantic compact, and envisions crafting them in tandem.

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  Army Research and Development Collaboration and The Role of Globalization in Research

  John W. Lyons

  This paper considers a number of approaches to international collaboration in military research, discussing the challenges inherent in collaboration and considering recommendations for the future.

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  An Assessment of the Science and Technology Predictions in the Army’s STAR21 Report

  John W. Lyons, Richard Chait, and Jordan Wilcox

  This paper reviews the technology forecast assessments of the Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century (STAR21) study conducted for the Army by the National Research Council in the early 1990s.

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  Good Bugs, Bad Bugs: A Modern Approach for Detecting Offensive Biological Weapons Research

  Michael Moodie, Cheryl Loeb, Robert E. Armstrong, and Helen Purkitt

  This report outlines a new framework to monitor countries in terms of their potential to engage in covert biological weapons research. This is an effort to develop an indirect approach to measuring a nation’s capability to conduct offensive weapons research in both civilian and government or military settings.

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  Programming Development Funds to Support a Counterinsurgency: Nangarhar, Afghanistan

  Michelle Parker

  This paper describes one method of programming development funds at a sub-national level to positively affect a counterinsurgency, in this case, in Eastern Afghanistan. It explores how one interagency group, the Jalalabad Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), developed and implemented a strategy for increasing stability in its area of operations by maximizing the resources each agency brought to the table and creating “unity of effort.”

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  A Methodology for Assessing the Military Benefits of Science and Technology Investments

  Albert Sciarretta, Richard Chait, Joseph N. Mait, and Jordan Willcox

  This paper discusses approaches developed at CTNSP, at the request of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology, for measuring the benefits of today’s science and technology (S&T) investments on the future military.

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  Homegrown Terrorism: The Threat Within

  Kimberley L. Thachuk, Marion E. “Spike” Bowman, and Courtney Richardson

  This paper attempts to illustrate how difficult, if not impossible, it is to find root causes of domestic terrorism that are of general applicability. It is likely to be more important to focus on the unique cultural stamp of the individual nation to assess the reason for violence-prone disquietude among its citizens and residents.

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  Breakthrough Air Force Capabilities Spawned by Basic Research

  William Berry and Cheryl Loeb

  This paper will focus on scientific discoveries that have already lead to new capabilities for the Air Force, as well as those discoveries that will lead to the new capabilities envisioned in the 2004 Flight plan and 2006 Posture Statement and those yet to be envisioned.

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  A Further Look at Technologies and Capabilities for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

  Richard Chait, Albert Sciarretta, John W. Lyons, Charles L. Barry, Dennis Shorts, and Duncan Long

  This present study resumes where the first study left off, expanding on identifying capability needs and possible technology solutions to the S&R problems facing the force today and in the future.

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  Deploying Nuclear Detection Systems: A Proposed Strategy for Combating Nuclear Terrorism

  James Goodby, Timothy Coffey, and Cheryl Loeb

  This report provides an overview of the threat from nuclear terrorism; discusses the role of intelligence and risk assessments in countering this threat; provides a brief overview of nuclear detection technologies and issues; briefly summarizes key U.S. Government programs involved in nuclear detection; summarizes domestic legislation; and discusses the need for a global approach to nuclear nonproliferation.

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  Implications of an Independent Kosovo for Russia’s Near Abroad

  Zoe Hunter, Samuel T. Schwabe, Melissa Sinclair, Michael H. Hoffman, Michael Baranick, and Daniel L. Burghart

  This paper evaluates the argument that Kosovo’s situation represents a precedent for separatists elsewhere by comparing it to the four regions in the Former Soviet Union most often cited in relation to it and is intended to highlight the similarities and differences between these cases, to facilitate negotiations on the resolution of the final status of Kosovo.

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  Future Directions For U.S. Foreign Policy: Balancing Status Quo and Reform

  Richard L. Kugler and Hans Binnendijk

  This paper offers a framework for how to analyze and blend together the viability of returning to a set of policies and with that of a greater emphasis on the status quo. It also offers a direction of where these analyses can lead in the future. It is a global perspective but provides insights along the way on the Middle East.

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  U.S. Support for UN Peacekeeping: Areas for Additional DOD Assistance

  Nancy Soderberg

  This report addresses primarily those areas in which limited DoD involvement will provide multiplier benefits to U.S. Security. While beyond the scope of this study, a government-wide, comprehensive review of possible assistance should be conducted.

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  Senturion: A Predictive Political Simulation Model

  Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, and Jacek Kugler

  This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University. The paper describes the methodology underlying the software, and then provides an overview of three case studies that used the software.

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  Solutions for Northern Kosovo: Lessons Learned in Mostar, Eastern Slavonia, and Brcko

  Hans Binnendijk, Charles L. Barry, GIna Cordero, Laura Peterson Nussbaum, and Melissa Sinclair

  This paper examines three similar cases to the issues in Kososvo that were managed by the international community. By looking at the results of these three cases a decade or more after they began, this paper attempts to shed light on the options for Mitrovica, Kosovo. In order to do this, members of the CTNSP staff traveled to these areas to gather firsthand information relating to this problem.

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  Critical Technology Events in the Development of the Apache Helicopter: Project Hindsight Revisited

  Richard Chait, John W. Lyons, and Duncan Long

  This study is the second in a series that examines some of the key factors that have led to meaningful technology generation and ultimate incorporation into the U.S. Army weapons systems we see in the field today. The purpose of this report is to examine the development of select Army systems, and in particular those signal technology events that propelled these systems to success, and to shed light on the factors that lead defense science and technology research to fruition.

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  Army Science and Technology Analysis for Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

  Richard Chait, Albert Sciarretta, and Dennis Shorts

  This study assesses the technology capability gaps in the U.S. Army’s ability to conduct S&R operations. The purpose of this study is to identify the technological shortfalls, identify capability gaps and needs, and highlight technology opportunities for consideration by Army S&T leadership.

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  Overcoming the S&T Assessment Uncertainty Principle: An Approach to Enterprise-Wide Assessment of the DOD S&T Program

  Timothy Coffey, Elihu Zimet, Fred E. Saalfeld, and Timothy Lo

  This study examines why the sum of all the reviews of the relevance, viability, and productivity of the S&T program of the DoD does not constitute an assessment of the entire DoD S&T enterprise and examines the prospects for rectifying this situation.

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  Issues in Air Force Science and Technology Funding

  Donald C. Daniel

  This paper looks at several issues surrounding future Air Force S&T and offers some suggestions for the future. It also looks at the framework of Air Force science and technology and a long-term history of Air Force S&T funding.