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Description

This Strategic Forum paper evaluates the continued relevance of the post–Cold War “two–major theater war” (two-MTW) standard that has guided U.S. defense planning since 1993. Arguing that the strategic environment has evolved beyond the assumptions underpinning the two-MTW framework, the authors contend that preparing to fight two nearly simultaneous large regional wars no longer adequately captures emerging threats. They highlight the declining likelihood of concurrent conflicts in the Persian Gulf and on the Korean Peninsula, the rise of China as a potential peer competitor, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the growing importance of peacetime engagement and smaller-scale contingencies. The paper proposes a revised planning construct—“one plus one-half plus one-half” contingencies—combining capacity for one large theater war with forces for two medium-sized operations elsewhere. This approach aims to enhance flexibility, strategic responsiveness, and adaptability in both peacetime and wartime planning.

Document Type

Policy Brief

Region(s)

Persian Gulf, Korean Peninsula, Asia-Pacific Region

Topic(s)

Defense Policy, Military Strategy, National Security

Publication Date

4-2001

Publication

Strategic Forum

Publisher

National Defense University Press

City

Washington, DC

Keywords

two-major theater war standard, U.S. defense planning, force structure, strategic flexibility, large theater war, military transformation, China, Persian Gulf, Korean Peninsula, contingency operations

Revising the Two-Major Theater War Standard

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