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Description

This Strategic Forum paper explores the volatile and unpredictable nature of inter-Korean relations on the Korean Peninsula, emphasizing the potential for sudden diplomatic and security shifts — or “strategic surprise” — despite periods of stagnation. Drawing on developments following the historic June 2000 South-North Summit in Pyongyang, the author analyzes how engagement efforts between Seoul and Pyongyang raised hopes for reconciliation but ultimately yielded uneven progress, impacted by political dynamics in both Koreas and broader regional contexts. The paper assesses the implications of unpredictable shifts in bilateral relations for U.S. and allied policy, highlighting the need for proactive, adaptive diplomatic and security strategies that emphasize transparency, verification, and coordination among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo to manage potential surprises and maintain stability on the Peninsula.

Document Type

Policy Brief

Region(s)

Korean Peninsula, East Asia, United States

Topic(s)

National Security, Defense Policy, Strategic Competition

Publication Date

3-2002

Publication

Strategic Forum

Publisher

National Defense University Press

City

Washington, DC

Keywords

Korean Peninsula, South Korea, North Korea, strategic surprise, inter-Korean relations, U.S. policy, diplomacy, regional security, alliance coordination

Anticipating Strategic Surprise on the Korean Peninsula

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