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Description

This paper assesses Afghanistan’s security and political trajectory in early 2004, arguing that the country had entered a decisive “make-or-break” phase in post-Taliban stabilization. The authors analyze the persistence of warlordism, Pashtun resentment, Taliban-led insurgency, narcotics trafficking, and cross-border dynamics involving Pakistan, Iran, India, and Central Asia. They examine the evolving coalition response, including the expansion of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Operation Enduring Freedom’s shift toward population-centered counterinsurgency, development of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and police forces, Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) initiatives, and the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) model. The brief argues that sustained U.S. leadership, expanded international engagement, security sector reform, and accelerated reconstruction are essential to prevent renewed civil war and ensure long-term Afghan stability.

Document Type

Policy Brief

Topic(s)

Counterterrorism, Irregular Warfare, National Security

Publication Date

3-2004

Publication

Strategic Forum

Publisher

National Defense University Press

City

Washington, DC

Keywords

Afghanistan Stabilization, Post-Taliban Reconstruction, Counterinsurgency Strategy, Taliban Insurgency, Anti-Coalition Forces (ACF), Warlordism, Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), Afghan National Army (ANA), Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR), International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Operation Enduring Freedom, Pashtun Politics, Narcotics Trafficking, Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations, Islamic Extremism

Securing Afghanistan: Entering a Make-or-Break Phase?

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