A Better Way to Talk About Risk

Authors

Kim Cragin, Center for Strategy and Military Power, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

Abstract

Dr. Kim Cragin, in the INSS Center for Strategy and Military Power, examines the evolving U.S. defense strategy, emphasizing the necessity for a more nuanced approach to assessing and communicating strategic risk, particularly in counterterrorism efforts. As the U.S. shifts focus toward deterring Chinese aggression, there's an implicit acceptance of increased risk from other threats, including terrorism. Cragin critiques current risk assessment frameworks and proposes a model that incorporates shorter time horizons, iterative planning, and clear risk categorizations. This approach aims to enhance decision-making processes and ensure that strategic risks are comprehensively understood and effectively managed.

Document Type

Article

Topic(s)

Defense Policy, Counterterrorism

Region(s)

United States

Publication Date

7-6-2025

Recommended Citation

Cragin, Kim, "A Better Way to Talk About Risk" (2025). Articles & Op-Eds. 16.
https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/csr-articles/16