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Description

This Strategic Forum by Dr. Joel Wuthnow, in the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, examines the strategic consequences of a failed People’s Republic of China (PRC) attempt to invade Taiwan. Rather than assuming defeat would restore deterrence or compel Beijing to abandon its objectives, the article argues that a failed invasion could lock China into a prolonged, coercive conflict—a “forever war”—marked by sustained military pressure, economic coercion, gray-zone operations, and heightened escalation risks. Drawing on Chinese strategic culture, leadership risk tolerance, and civil-military dynamics, the analysis explores how Beijing might adapt politically and militarily following failure, including shifts in force posture, mobilization, and domestic control. The article also assesses implications for U.S. and allied deterrence strategies, emphasizing the need to prepare not only to defeat an invasion but to manage the long-term security environment that would follow. Ultimately, the piece highlights that preventing conflict requires credible deterrence across all phases of competition.

Document Type

Policy Brief

Region(s)

East Asia

Topic(s)

Chinese Military, Defense Policy, National Security

Publication Date

10-2024

Publication

Strategic Forum

Publisher

National Defense University Press

City

Washington, DC

Keywords

China's Forever War, Taiwan invasion, Taiwan Strait conflict, PRC military strategy, post-invasion strategic dynamics, deterrence and escalation, People's Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan defense, U.S.-China strategic competition

China’s Forever War: What If a Taiwan Invasion Fails?

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