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Description

This Strategic Forum paper analyzes China’s complex strategic calculus in addressing North Korea’s nuclear crisis. While the United States views Pyongyang’s nuclear program as an immediate proliferation and alliance threat, Beijing approaches the crisis through a broader lens shaped by regional stability, regime survival concerns, historical ties, domestic political sensitivities, and great-power rivalry with Washington. The author examines China’s limited leverage over North Korea, the risks of economic sanctions or regime collapse, refugee flows into Northeast China, and the potential for regional nuclear proliferation involving Japan or Taiwan. The paper argues that Beijing is likely to pursue a multilateral diplomatic approach that enhances Chinese influence while minimizing political risk and avoiding overt alignment with U.S. coercive strategies. Ultimately, China’s choices remain constrained by Pyongyang’s unpredictability and by Beijing’s desire to preserve regional stability and its international image.

Document Type

Policy Brief

Region(s)

Korean Peninsula, China, Northeast Asia

Topic(s)

National Security, Nuclear Policy, Strategic Competition

Publication Date

8-2003

Publication

Strategic Forum

Publisher

National Defense University Press

City

Washington, DC

Keywords

North Korea, nuclear crisis, China foreign policy, Korean Peninsula, nonproliferation, multilateral diplomacy, U.S.–China relations, refugee crisis, regional security, Northeast Asia

Resolving Korea’s Nuclear Crisis: Tough Choices for China

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