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Description

This Strategic Forum policy brief analyzes Iraq’s fragile political transition following the June 2004 transfer of sovereignty from the Coalition Provisional Authority to the Iraqi Interim Government. It assesses three interrelated challenges: the risk of civil war, the legitimacy of transitional governance, and the long-term development of political institutions. While sectarian and ethnic tensions among Sunni Arabs, Shi’a Arabs, and Kurds are pronounced, the brief argues that large-scale civil war is not inevitable. Instead, instability is more likely to stem from extremist movements, militia power, and disputes over federalism and control of territory, particularly Kirkuk. The author contends that the success of Iraq’s transition depends on the United States empowering Iraqi leaders as genuine partners, avoiding overreach in political decisionmaking, supporting disarmament of militias, and sustaining security during institution building. Failure to manage the transition effectively could produce prolonged instability with regional consequences.

Document Type

Policy Brief

Region(s)

Iraq, Middle East, Persian Gulf

Topic(s)

Defense Policy, Irregular Warfare, National Security

Publication Date

6-2004

Publication

Strategic Forum

Publisher

National Defense University Press

City

Washington, DC

Keywords

Iraq Reconstruction, Post-Saddam Iraq, Iraqi Interim Government, Sectarian Politics, Sunni-Shi’a Relations, Kurdish Autonomy, Federalism in Iraq, Civil-Military Relations, Militia Disarmament, Transitional Governance, Coalition Provisional Authority, Iraqi Constitution, State-Building, Insurgency in Iraq, U.S. Policy in Iraq

Turbulent Transition in Iraq: Can It Succeed?

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