Iran’s Strategic Crossroads: Options Beyond the Axis?

Abstract

In "Iran’s Strategic Crossroads: Options Beyond the Axis?" for The Washington Quarterly, Mahsa Rouhi in the INSS Center for Strategy and Military Power examines the implications of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and its regional effects on Iran's strategic posture. The conflict tested Iran's deterrence architecture and the operational value of its "Axis of Resistance," revealing fragmentation and overstretch within the alliance. Rouhi analyzes Tehran's strategic recalibration, highlighting the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria as a pivotal moment that severed Iran's logistical corridor to Hezbollah. The article discusses the erosion of Iran's traditional deterrence doctrine, which relied on ballistic missile and drone capabilities, nuclear hedging, and a network of armed partners. Finally, Rouhi explores the impact of improved diplomatic relations between Iran and Gulf states, suggesting a potential shift in Tehran's regional strategy toward more direct engagement and recalibration of its alliances.

Document Type

Article

Topic(s)

Future Strategic Concepts, National Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy

Region(s)

Middle East

Publication Date

7-7-2025

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