With the Armenia-Azerbaijan Deal, It’s a New Era in the Caucasus

Abstract

In the wake of the Armenia-Azerbaijan framework agreement, the South Caucasus faces a potential new era of regional stability, though significant risks remain. Jeffrey Mankoff examines the enduring influence of Russia in Armenia, including economic leverage, control of critical infrastructure, and political and religious networks, as well as Moscow’s belligerent posture following the Ukraine conflict. He also highlights tensions with Azerbaijan, exemplified by the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, and the continuing threat posed by Tehran. The United States and France have played key roles in facilitating the agreement through security cooperation and diplomatic engagement, aiming to deter regional escalation. While the framework represents a major step toward resolving a long-standing conflict, the sustainability of peace in the South Caucasus will depend on Moscow and Tehran’s responses and the effectiveness of Western diplomatic and security initiatives.

Document Type

Article

Topic(s)

National Security, Defense Policy, Great Power Competition

Region(s)

South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia

Publication Date

8-26-2025

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