Assessing Russian Cyber and Information Warfare in Ukraine: Expectations, Realities, and Lessons

Abstract

This article examines Russian use of cyber and information capabilities to influence the course of the Ukraine war by analyzing prior expectations, public knowledge of wartime realities, potential reasons for disparity between the two, and the distinct and sometimes contradictory takeaways that have been drawn to date within the analytical community. What lessons can be learned from the early phase of the Ukraine war concerning Russia's capabilities, strategy, and approach in cyberspace? To what extent do these lessons point to broader possible conclusions about the role of cyber and information operations during direct military conflict? Furthermore, what explains the dramatically different early responses to these significant questions? How can the strategic community make sense of this debate and arrive at usable lessons? Although the lack of consensus among experts this far into the conflict demonstrates the challenges of drawing conclusions with incomplete and early evidence, we suggest that significant preliminary lessons can be drawn by looking at both sides of the debate—understanding the bases of disagreement and elements of validity to each set of claims.

Document Type

Article

Topic(s)

Emerging Science and Technologies

Publication Date

11-22-2023

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