Xi’s military purges will make him wary of invading Taiwan

Abstract

This article published by The Lowy Institute analyzes the implications of recent senior leadership purges within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) under Chinese President Xi Jinping and how these internal dynamics may affect Beijing’s calculus regarding a potential invasion of Taiwan. It argues that the removal of seasoned commanders, including Xi’s former military allies, reflects deepening political control at the expense of professional military expertise, creating heightened risk aversion within the PLA’s command structure. The consolidation of power and loyalty-based promotions could reduce confidence in the military’s readiness and make Xi more cautious about initiating large-scale operations such as an invasion of Taiwan. The piece situates the purges within broader discussions of civil-military relations, operational capacity, and strategic decision-making in cross-strait tensions.

Document Type

Article

Topic(s)

Chinese Military, Military Strategy, National Security

Region(s)

East Asia, China, Taiwan Strait/Taiwan

Publication Date

2-5-2026

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