Rightsizing the PLA Air Force: Revisiting an Analytic Framework

Authors

Lauren Edson, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Phillip C. Saunders, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

Abstract

This article evaluates the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) from 2007 to 2025 using the Saunders-Quam framework, which identifies four core trade-offs: changes in roles and missions, domestic versus foreign procurement, high-tech versus low-tech systems, and combat versus support aircraft. While the framework remains a useful analytical tool, it underestimated the Chinese Communist Party’s willingness to fund expensive modernization efforts and the rapid advancements in China’s defense industrial base. The article identifies key factors missing from the original framework such as doctrinal shifts, increased emphasis on counterintervention, maritime expansion, and the rise of unmanned systems. It also proposes expanding the model to include three overarching variables: perceptions of the international threat environment, changes in defense budgets, and improvements in the defense industrial base. These enhancements would strengthen the framework’s ability to assess not only PLAAF modernization but also broader force structure decisions across other PLA services and foreign militaries.

Recommended Citation

Lauren Edson & Phillip C. Saunders, "Rightsizing the PLA Air Force: Revisiting an Analytic Framework," Joint Force Quarterly 118 (3rd Quarter 2025), 10-21, https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/joint-force-quarterly/vol118/iss3/4.