Joint Force Quarterly
Abstract
This article explores the critical but often overlooked role of risk analysis in U.S. national security decision-making, emphasizing its importance in strategy formulation and execution. Risk, defined as the potential for adverse outcomes tied to uncertainties, is frequently misunderstood or ignored, leading to flawed assumptions, bias-driven decisions, and costly strategic failures. Using examples from Iraq, Afghanistan, and the operation to capture Osama bin Laden, the article illustrates how inadequate risk management has hampered strategic outcomes. It highlights the need for a consistent framework for assessing risk, broader than current military doctrine, to address political, economic, and diplomatic risks. Recommendations include enhancing risk analysis capabilities within the National Security Council, fostering a culture of critical thinking, and institutionalizing risk management as a routine practice. By prioritizing risk analysis, senior leaders can make better-informed decisions, adapt strategies effectively, and improve national security outcomes.
Recommended Citation
Frank Hoffman, "Risk: A Weak Element in U.S. Strategy Formulation," Joint Force Quarterly 116 (1st Quarter 2025), 4-18, https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/joint-force-quarterly/vol116/iss4/3.
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