Defusing Weaponized Interdependence: A New Approach to Measuring Country Reliability

Authors

• Michael F. Harsch, Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy, National Defense University
• Shaun Lee, Joint Intelligence Operations Center, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command

Abstract

Global supply chain disruptions, U.S.-China trade competition, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the risks created by economic interdependence and dependence on potentially unreliable suppliers. This article introduces the Measure of Country Reliability (MCR), a framework for assessing the reliability of prospective U.S. economic and supply chain partners. The measure combines countries’ voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly, used as an indicator of past geopolitical alignment with the United States, with Freedom House Global Freedom Scores, used to estimate likely future reliability. The authors apply the MCR to the 1973 oil embargo and to current U.S. friend-shoring initiatives involving critical minerals and semiconductor supply chains. They argue that the framework can help policymakers assess political risk, identify reliable partners, and balance supply chain security against the costs of shifting production and sourcing. The article concludes that incorporating country reliability into friend-shoring decisions could strengthen critical supply chains, support economic alliances, and improve the resilience and capacity of the U.S. defense industrial base.