Risk: A Weak Element in U.S. Strategy Formulation

Authors

• Frank Hoffman, Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

Abstract

Strategic risk is an inherent element of national security decisionmaking, yet it is often insufficiently incorporated into U.S. strategy formulation. Frank Hoffman argues that risk analysis should be a routine and continuous component of strategic planning rather than an exercise conducted primarily during implementation. Drawing on joint doctrine and case studies involving the Iraq War, Operation Neptune Spear, and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the article illustrates how assumptions, institutional biases, and inconsistent approaches to risk can shape strategic outcomes. Hoffman calls for a broader, shared understanding of strategic risk across the national security community and recommends developing an interagency risk framework, embedding structured risk analysis into core strategy processes, and strengthening National Security Council capacity for risk assessment. Institutionalizing these practices, he argues, would improve strategic decisionmaking, facilitate timely adaptation, and strengthen overall strategic effectiveness.